New energy efficiency improvement in the USA in 2019, after slight rise in 2018.
Global energy intensity (total energy consumption per unit of GDP) improved by 2.1% in 2019, i.e. faster than its historical trend (-1.6%/year on average between 2000 and 2018 and -1.2% in 2018). However, this improvement remains far from the 3.5%/year decrease required to achieve the 2°C scenario.
Energy intensity levels and trends differ widely across world regions, reflecting differences in economic structure and energy efficiency achievements.
China’s energy intensity reduction continued in 2019 (-2.8%, close to its historical trend): in 2019, its energy intensity stood 44% below its 2000 level, still 17% above the world average.
Since 2000, the USA and the EU have cut their energy intensity by more than 30% thanks to energy efficiency efforts, to changes in the power mix (higher share of renewables and gas) and to a lesser extent to a structural shift toward less energy-intensive industry branches and the growing share of services in the GDP. Energy intensity in the EU was 33% below the world average in 2019, with reductions accelerating in 2019 compared to historical trends.
The high energy intensity in the CIS, the Middle East, China and some developing Asian countries is explained by the dominance of energy-intensive industries, commodity exporting-based economies and low energy prices that do not encourage energy efficiency. In 2019, energy intensity decreased in Asia (especially in India, Japan and South Korea), in Canada and in Mexico. It stayed stable in Russia (+0.4%, almost no change since 2010), where it remains twice as high as the global average, and increased in most Middle East countries.
According to the General Administration of Customs, China’s crude oil imports increased by 7.3% in 2020 to 542 Mt (10.85 mb/d), boosted by low prices and the start-up of new refineries. The country increased the first batch of crude oil import quotas for non-state companies by 18% to 122.6 Mt in 2021, reflecting the increased capacity of private refiners. In addition, China’s gas imports, including LNG, rose by 5.3% to 101.7 Mt, as a harsh winter and a quick economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic boosted demand.
According to the Russian power transmission system operator SO UPS, electricity consumption in the Unified Energy System (UES) of Russia decreased by 2.4% in 2020. Electricity consumption in Russia as a whole declined by 2.3% in 2020. Electricity generation in Russia in 2020 amounted to 1,064 TWh, which is 3% less than in 2019. Power plants in the UES produced 1,047 TWh (-3.1%), with thermal accounting for 53% of the total, nuclear for 21% and hydropower for 20%. Power plants for industrial enterprises accounted for 6% of total generation in the UES.
Kazakhstan produced 85.7 Mt of oil and condensate in 2020, of which 26.4 Mt (31%) were produced by Tengizchevroil, 15.1 Mt (18%) by North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC), and 12 Mt (14%) by Karachaganak Petroleum Operating. Oil exports reached 68.5 Mt. In addition, Kazakhstan’s natural gas output amounted to 55.2 bcm in 2020 (plus 3.2 Mt of LPG); domestic gas consumption reached 17.2 bcm and 10.7 bcm were exported. Oil product production reached 11.5 Mt, including 4.5 Mt of gasoline, 4.55 Mt of diesel and 2.1 Mt of fuel oil. Crude oil production is expected to remain stable in 2021, reaching 86 Mt, while oil exports are forecast to decline by 1.5% to 67.5 Mt.
Azerbaijan increased gas exports by 17% to 13.8 bcm in 2020, thanks to the Southern Gas Corridor. The country exported 10.5 mcm/d of gas to Italy, 2 mcm/d to Greece and 1 mcm/d to Bulgaria. The Shaz Deniz field’s output, which reached 18.4 bcm of gas and 29.2 mbl of of condensate in 2020, is expected to rise to 21.3 bcm of gas and 32.5 mbl of condensate in 2021. However, oil production at the Azeri–Chirag–Gunashli (ACG) complex should decline from 174.6 mbl in 2020 to 171.6 mbl in 2021.