Decline in CO2 intensity in the EU in 2019.
In 2019, the CO2 intensity fell by 2.9%, i.e. nearly twice its 2000-2018 average (-1.5%/year), thanks to steady improvements in energy intensity (around 1.5-2%/year) and in the “carbon factor” (CO2 emissions of energy consumption), especially for power generation (lower coal consumption). The CO2 intensity posted significant decreases in OECD countries (-5.5% in the EU and South Korea, -4.6% in the USA, -4.1% in Japan), well above their historical trends. In the EU, the CO2 intensity particularly decreased in large countries such as Poland (-10%), Germany (-7%) and Spain (-8%) due to decreasing CO2 emissions and slower economic growth.
The CO2 intensity also improved in Asia (-3.4%), especially in China (-3.1%, even if it remains 52% above the global average) and India (-5.1%, due to a strong economic growth coupled with declining emissions). In other large economies, the improvement was much slower (-0.6% in Australia, where CO2 emissions slightly increased, -1% in Mexico). Conversely, the CO2 intensity continued to increase in Russia, South Africa and Iran, following the rising trend in their emissions.
According to the General Administration of Customs, China’s crude oil imports increased by 7.3% in 2020 to 542 Mt (10.85 mb/d), boosted by low prices and the start-up of new refineries. The country increased the first batch of crude oil import quotas for non-state companies by 18% to 122.6 Mt in 2021, reflecting the increased capacity of private refiners. In addition, China’s gas imports, including LNG, rose by 5.3% to 101.7 Mt, as a harsh winter and a quick economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic boosted demand.
According to the Russian power transmission system operator SO UPS, electricity consumption in the Unified Energy System (UES) of Russia decreased by 2.4% in 2020. Electricity consumption in Russia as a whole declined by 2.3% in 2020. Electricity generation in Russia in 2020 amounted to 1,064 TWh, which is 3% less than in 2019. Power plants in the UES produced 1,047 TWh (-3.1%), with thermal accounting for 53% of the total, nuclear for 21% and hydropower for 20%. Power plants for industrial enterprises accounted for 6% of total generation in the UES.
Kazakhstan produced 85.7 Mt of oil and condensate in 2020, of which 26.4 Mt (31%) were produced by Tengizchevroil, 15.1 Mt (18%) by North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC), and 12 Mt (14%) by Karachaganak Petroleum Operating. Oil exports reached 68.5 Mt. In addition, Kazakhstan’s natural gas output amounted to 55.2 bcm in 2020 (plus 3.2 Mt of LPG); domestic gas consumption reached 17.2 bcm and 10.7 bcm were exported. Oil product production reached 11.5 Mt, including 4.5 Mt of gasoline, 4.55 Mt of diesel and 2.1 Mt of fuel oil. Crude oil production is expected to remain stable in 2021, reaching 86 Mt, while oil exports are forecast to decline by 1.5% to 67.5 Mt.
Azerbaijan increased gas exports by 17% to 13.8 bcm in 2020, thanks to the Southern Gas Corridor. The country exported 10.5 mcm/d of gas to Italy, 2 mcm/d to Greece and 1 mcm/d to Bulgaria. The Shaz Deniz field’s output, which reached 18.4 bcm of gas and 29.2 mbl of of condensate in 2020, is expected to rise to 21.3 bcm of gas and 32.5 mbl of condensate in 2021. However, oil production at the Azeri–Chirag–Gunashli (ACG) complex should decline from 174.6 mbl in 2020 to 171.6 mbl in 2021.